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The State of Bitcoin

Dear John,

I peruse the community, browsing charts and the crypto section just makes me sigh a lot of time. That’s ok, because there’s something I can do about it. Many crypto traders are stuck and confused with the current action in BTCUSD . That’s ok too. Normally, I just post charts with levels and targets. Today I’m gonna break some things down

Let’s Break It Down:

Before making any trades, analyze the higher time frame trends. Say you start with the weekly. What is the weekly trend? Currently the longer term trend in BTC is up, but only because the low at 5500ish has held. Crazy to think that the current trend is still upward. Using a log scale will help you see that more clearly.


Since I’ve identified the major trend, I move to more current price action, the more immediate trend.

Notice the weekly levels being held within the segment of trend in the dashed yellow line? These levels labeled around 8350 and 9300s will be important to either fail or gain.

It just so happens that the price action contained inside the yellow box in the chart below, is the result of the downward momentum produce from the move down from 20K. The yellow box is really just an attempt to exhaust the downward momentum.


Now that the momentum exchange is clear, what now? Well let’s analyze something bigger to check the perspective.

The monthly chart doesn’t look as crazy in log scale, but it has some valuable information to tell us. I’m overlapping previous crashes in BTCUSD with the current setup .



On the monthly chart, I have some reservations about not testing the 4900 area or at least the lows at 5500 before making new all time highs. Interestingly enough:


85% Crash would look something like this, and lines up nicely.


Now back to more current action. The downtrend should continue unless the 9100 area is gained. How soon will that happen? Probably not anytime soon (but I’ve been wrong before).


All markets behave with certain rules in mind. The random-walk hypothesis is either purposeful misinformation, or pretty math tweaked to fit a narrative. The mind of markets is actually more relatable to Newtonian physics than anything else, but I digress…

To get really excited, I want to see $BTCUSD gain some really significant higher time frames of support, otherwise… the downtrend continues (probably something relating to the fractal chart I posted above). I’m unbiased either way… “hope don’t get the job done.”

John… what I’m trying to say is… I’m leaving you.

Previously yours truly,

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